Michigan owns the football rivalry with Indiana, winning the last 20 meetings in a row. But after giving the Wolverines some good games recently, the Hoosiers are 3-2 against the spread over the last five meetings. Two teams coming off tough losses meet when Indiana challenges Michigan on Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor.

Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 28-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 48-21, Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

Why the Indiana Hoosiers can cover the spread

The Hoosiers had won two games in a row, but lost a tough one at home to Penn State last week, 45-31. And that final score is misleading. Indiana trailed early, battled back to lead 31-28 in the fourth quarter, but then gave up 17 points in the last four minutes.

The Hoosiers looked like they were on their way to a cover as seven-point home dogs, but they gave up a field goal with a minute to go, then had a fumble returned for a Nittany Lions touchdown with 30 seconds left. On the day, Indiana outgained Penn State, 454-409, but lost five fumbles, three in Penn State territory.

The Hoosiers have outgained and outrushed each of their last three opponents. At 5-5, Indiana needs one win in its final two games to become bowl-eligible for the second straight season.

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Maize and Blue were 9-0 and rolling toward the College Football Playoff but had a bad night on the road, losing at Iowa last week, 14-13. Michigan grabbed an early 10-0 lead on the Hawkeyes and still led 13-11 late, but they lost on a field goal at the buzzer in an almost exact repeat of Jim Harbaugh’s last visit to Kinnick Stadium back in 1985.

The Wolverines could only come up with 201 yards of offense, but the defense held Iowa to just 230 and a single touchdown. Unfortunately, the Wolverines also gave up a safety on poor field position, threw an interception and committed a crucial facemask penalty that helped set the Hawkeyes up for their game-winning field goal.

At 6-1 in conference play, Michigan is now tied with Penn State and Ohio State for the lead in the Big Ten East. The Wolverines own the tiebreaker on the Nittany Lions and finish the regular season in Columbus next week.

Smart pick

Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight is expected to be out for this game, but backup John O’Korn is experienced. The Wolverines are still likely to win this game. But Indiana gave Ohio State, Nebraska and Penn State good games earlier this year. They also took Michigan to overtime last year. If the Hoosiers can concentrate on ball security, they could keep this one interesting.

Betting trends

Indiana is 0-15 SU in its last 15 games against Michigan.

The total has gone over in 11 of Michigan’s last 14 games after losing as a favorite.

Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after a loss.

All college football betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.